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Financial Markets 04/08 09:31
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices are plunging back toward $90 per barrel, and
stock markets are surging worldwide after President Donald Trump pulled back
from his threat to force a "whole civilization" to die in the war with Iran.
The S&P 500 leaped 2.4% after Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with
Iran, less than 90 minutes before a deadline Trump had set for it to open the
Strait of Hormuz and allow oil tankers to exit the Persian Gulf and reach
customers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1,332 points, or 2.9%, as of
10 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 2.9% higher following even
bigger gains in European and Asian stock markets.
To be sure, stock prices are still below where they were before the war. And
oil prices are still higher because the threat remains that the war could
continue and keep oil produced in the Persian Gulf area blocked in the Middle
East.
The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline has already topped $4.16
in the United States, according to AAA. That's up from less than $3 a couple
days before the United States and Israel launched attacks to begin the war in
late February. If oil prices stay high for a long time, it would push up the
price of nearly everything that's moved by truck, plane or boat.
"There is a reason to be optimistic, but it is still too early to tell,
because, as you know, after all, it is Trump," said Takashi Hiroki, chief
strategist at MONEX.
So far in the war, Trump has set several deadlines for Iran to open the
Strait of Hormuz and has threatened big repercussions if Iran doesn't, only to
delay them.
It's similar to a year ago, when Trump threatened stiff tariffs on imports
from other countries on "Liberation Day." After a couple delays, his
administration eventually negotiated lower tariffs with many countries, though
they were still higher than from before his second term. That led some
investors to allege Trump "always chickens out," or "TACO," if financial
markets show enough pain.
"Is it just kicking of the can down the road, moving the goalposts, TACO
Tuesday, or whatever metaphor we'd like, to only to have tempers flare and
bombs drop again?" Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth
Management, asked about the two-week ceasefire with Iran. "Who knows? But it's
good enough for now to elicit a positive response from the markets."
The price for a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude oil plunged 17.7% to $92.92.
Brent crude, the international standard, tumbled 16.1% to $91.68 per barrel. It
had briefly topped $119 when worries about the war with Iran were at their
highest.
The next moves for oil prices will likely depend on how many oil tankers can
start exiting the Strait of Hormuz and how easy their passage is. Iran said the
deal would allow it to formalize its new practice of charging ships passing
through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial transit lane for oil, but the terms
were not clear.
In Asia, where countries are more reliant on oil from the Middle East, South
Korea's Kospi stock index surged 6.9%. Japan's Nikkei 225 leaped 5.4%, and Hong
Kong's Hang Seng jumped 3.1%.
In Europe, where economies are more dependent on natural gas from the Middle
East than the United States is, stock indexes rose nearly as much as in Asia.
Germany's DAX returned 4.9%, and France's CAC 40 rose 4.7%.
On Wall Street, companies with big fuel bills roared back to trim some of
the sharp losses taken on worries about oil prices staying high.
United Airlines soared 12%, which could count as a decent year for the
stock. It cut into its loss for the year that came into the day at 20.1%.
Delta Air Lines climbed 8.2% after it also reported a stronger profit for
the latest quarter than analysts expected. CEO Ed Bastian said demand for
flights remains strong, and it's making moves to make up for higher fuel bills.
Delta on Tuesday became the latest airline to raise its fees for checking bags.
Cruise ship operator Carnival climbed 13.7%.
In the bond market, Treasury yields eased as hopes built that an easing of
oil prices could let the Federal Reserve resume its cuts to interest rates
later this year.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.26% from 4.33% late Tuesday.
That's a notable move for the bond market, and lower Treasury yields give a
boost to prices for stocks, bonds and all kinds of other investments. The drop
should also help ease some of the quick recent rise in rates for mortgages and
other loans taken out by U.S. households and businesses, which have been
slowing the economy.
When oil prices were screaming higher because of the war, some traders were
betting on the possibility that the Fed would have to raise interest rates to
keep a lid on inflation. Now, though, they're seeing a nearly 39% chance that
the Fed could resume its cuts to rates in 2026, according to data from CME
Group.
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AP journalists Yuri Kageyama, Matt Ott, Mayuko Ono and Jon Gambrell
contributed to this report.
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